Oracle / Markets / tech

Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1530 by December 31?

Yes 30.5¢
No 69.5¢
Trade YES on Banana PredictTrade NO

24h volume $79 · Event date Dec 31, 2026 · Prices updated Aug 08 03:51 UTC

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

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