Oracle / Markets / geopolitics

U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by December 31?

Yes 9.2¢
No 90.8¢
Trade YES on Banana PredictTrade NO

24h volume $681 · Event date Dec 31, 2026 · Prices updated Aug 04 09:43 UTC

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.

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